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A most optimistic prediction for 2012

Writing for Foreign Policy, Gordon G. Chang predicts the collapse of the Communist Party in China. Let’s hope he’s right.

At a time when crucial challenges mount, the Communist Party is beginning a multi-year political transition and therefore ill-prepared for the problems it faces. There are already visible splits among Party elites, and the leadership’s sluggish response in recent months — in marked contrast to its lightning-fast reaction in 2008 to economic troubles abroad — indicates that the decision-making process in Beijing is deteriorating. So check the box on divided government.

And as for the existence of an opposition, the Soviet Union fell without much of one. In our substantially more volatile age, the Chinese government could dissolve like the autocracies in Tunisia and Egypt. As evident in this month’s “open revolt” in the village of Wukan in Guangdong province, people can organize themselves quickly — as they have so many times since the end of the 1980s. In any event, a well-oiled machine is no longer needed to bring down a regime in this age of leaderless revolution.





2 thoughts on “A most optimistic prediction for 2012 Leave a comment

  1. Since nature abhors a vacuum, I would rather the Chinese regime crumble over a period of years than topple all at once. There is no reason to believe that a new regime would be better, for China or for the world. What replaces the current regime could easily be worse. Think Iran, Egypt, and yes, Iraq.

    The revolutions may seem “leaderless”, but what follows most assuredly will not be.

  2. Where is the Islamic influence in China? Maybe the Buddhists will take over — I could live with that. As long as the Scientologists don’t get any ideas.

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